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Houblog » Blog Archive » Exit Polling… or Exit Pulling?

Exit Polling… or Exit Pulling?

You decide.

U.S. exit polls have been wrong before. In fact, according to the Edison-Mitofsky report, they have shown a consistent discrepancy favoring the Democrats in every presidential election since 1988. And while the 2004 discrepancy was the highest ever, they were almost as far off in 1992. More specifically, the “within precinct error” (WPE) reported by Edison-Mitofsky showed differences favoring the Democrat of 2.2 points on the margin in 1988, 5.0 in 1992, 2.2 in 1996, 1.8 in 2000 and 6.5 in 2004.

Bear in mind that the average loss in a mid-term is 6 in the Senate, and 25 in the House. If you take the average error in those presidential elections, you get 3.54%, an amount that anyone will tell you is “within the margin of error.” And so it is — for a single election. But the error is consistantly one-sided, and in 16 years, no polling organization seems to have figured out how to correct for it. You think that would be a high priority, wouldn’t you?

How odd that that it hasn’t been…

One Response to “Exit Polling… or Exit Pulling?”

  1. DrHeinous Says:

    Well, according to certain people, it would be reality that is in error; the prediction was ‘correct’.

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